First let's take a look at the Region Winners (Predicted in parentheses):
1st Region: Graves County 25-8 (Marshall County)
2nd Region: Hopkinsville 31-4 (Hopkinsville)
3rd Region: Ohio County 25-7 (Daviess County)
4th Region: Warren Central 27-6 (Warren Central)
5th Region: John Hardin 27-3 (John Hardin)
6th Region: Pleasure Ridge Park 25-7 (Bullitt East)
7th Region: Ballard 28-4 (Ballard)
8th Region: South Oldham 23-7 (Collins)
9th Region: Holmes 30-2 (Holmes)
10th Region: Montgomery County 30-4 (Montgomery County)
11th Region: Madison Central 28-5 (Madison Central)
12th Region: Wayne County 27-7 (Pulaski County)
13th Region: Clay County 26-6 (Corbin)
14th Region: Knott County Central 28-5 (Hazard)
15th Region: Johnson Central 21-10 (Pikeville)
16th Region: Fleming County 28-6 (Fleming County)
Record: 8-8 on predictions
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Now let's take a look at the Sweet 16 bracket:
Some very intriguing early match-ups personally I think PRP-Holmes is the most intriguing of all the first round match-ups. PRP is one of the most talented teams in the field and their win over Bullitt East in the 6th Region semi-finals really turned heads.
I honestly think Ballard is the favorite followed closely by Madison Central. I think Ballard has the much more favorable draw, I'm not sure any team on their side of the bracket can beat them right now. While I think Pleasure Ridge Park could give Madison Central a real run for their money.
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Wayne County - Madison Central : Mr. Basketball Candidate Dominique Hawkins combined with Ken Jah Bosley and Quan Taylor is too much for the Cardinals. Madison Central moves on.
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| Holmes sophomore James Bolden is electric, but I don't think the Bulldogs will get past PRP. |
PRP - Holmes : Pleasure Ridge Park may finally be reaching their potential, I think they'll battle with the Bulldogs for three quarters before finding a way to pull it out in the 4th quarter.
Graves County - Ohio County : An all Eagles opening round match-up pits Graves County against Ohio County. Graves County is riding a 6 game winning streak, but that's trumped by the 10 game streak Ohio County sports. Ohio County hasn't lost sine late January and I think they'll continue that streak at least one more game.
Hopkinsville - South Oldham : Hopkinsville hasn't lost since late December, however South Oldham isn't going to roll over for the Tigers. In the end Majors and Matlock prove too much as the Tigers move on in a close one.
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| Warren Central is no stranger to the Sweet 16, but I don't think they can get past Omar Prewitt and Montgomery County. |
Warren Central - Montgomery County : The only other Mr. Basketball Candidate in the Sweet 16 is Montgomery County's Omar Prewitt. I don't think he or Happy Osborne plans on bowing out this early, Indians advance.
Fleming County - John Hardin : Two extremely talented teams in this first round match-up. However, John Hardin gets the edge based on experience.
Ballard - Johnson Central : Johnson Central star junior Shane Hall may give Ballard problems, but Ballard is too deep for the Golden Eagles. Bruins move on.
Clay County - Knott County Central : Knott County Central is led by a ton of sophomores while Clay County is led mainly by seniors. Normally I'd side with the experience, however I don't think Camron Justice is gonna go out after one game, Patriots move on.
We'll get to predictions for the quarterfinal round after some thoughts, facts, etc. on the Sweet 16.
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16 thoughts, facts, etc. on the Sweet 16:
- Four teams are making a return trip to the Sweet 16 from last year. Knott County Central, John Hardin, Hopkinsville and Johnson Central all repeated as champions of their regions.
- This is Warren Central's 9th trip to the Sweet 16 since 2002.
- Ballard has only lost one game since early January, that game being their only in-state loss, a 52-53 defeat in the L.I.T. Championship game.
- Hopkinsville is riding a 23 game winning streak. During that streak they've won by 10+ 20 times.
- Tons of talent in this Sweet 16, and it's dispersed well throughout the 2013, 2014 and 2015 classes. Omar Prewitt, Dominique Hawkins, Shane Hall, Quentin Snider, Camron Justice, James Bolden, etc. are all going to be fun to watch.
- Also a ton of great coaches Dale Mabrey, Jason Booher, Chris Renner, Happy Osborne, etc.
- I think Pleasure Ridge Park is the real darkhorse of the tournament. They've got the talent to compete with anybody and if they can slip by Madison Central they have a real good shot at winning the whole thing.
- Wayne County has now won the 12th Region 2 times in the last 3 years.
- Madison Central is the only team besides Lexington Catholic and Scott County to win the 11th Region since 2005.
- This is Graves County's 8th all-time appearance in the Sweet 16. They've won eight 1st Region titles since 1993, more than any other 1st Region team.
- This is Ohio County's fourth 3rd Region Championship and first since 2005.
- South Oldham is making their first ever appearance in the Sweet 16.
- Montgomery County is making only their second Sweet 16 appearance.
- Fleming County is making their first Sweet 16 appearance as a member of the 16th Region. They moved to the 16th Region from the 10th in the 2005/2006 season.
- Since 2005 Holmes has won the 9th Region five times. The Bulldogs won their only state title in 2009 under the direction of David Henley.
- Clay County is making their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2001. They've been to the Sweet 16 27 times, including 14 trips from 1973-1990.
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Predictions for the Quarterfinals are as follows:
Madison Central - Pleasure Ridge Park : PRP is just as talented as Madison Central, but they lack the experience that they have. Dominique Hawkins leads Madison Central to the semifinals.
Ohio County - Hopkinsville : Neither team has lost in over a month. However, I think it'll be tough for Ohio County to combat the Hopkinsville combo of Majors and Matlock. Tigers move on.
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| Brandon Price and his 17.8 points per game have led John Hardin to a second straight Sweet 16 |
Montgomery County - John Hardin : John Hardin hasn't lost since late December. However, they also haven't played anyone as good as Montgomery County. Omar Prewitt leads his team to the next round.
Ballard - Knott County Central : Camron Justice the top 2015 prospect in the state meets Quentin Snider the top 2014 prospect in the state. Ballard gets the edge here due to their depth and athleticism.
Semi-Final predictions after some thoughts on Mr. Basketball.
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| I think Omar Prewitt will be named 2013 Kentucky Mr. Basketball |
I honestly believe the chase for Mr. Basketball is down to two players. Dominique Hawkins (Madison Central) and Omar Prewitt (Montgomery County) are the only two candidates still playing. Thus they're the only two who in my opinion still have a shot at the title of Mr. Basketball. Both Hawkins and Prewitt played for the same AAU team The Ville 2013.
That being said, I think Omar Prewitt is going to win Mr. Basketball. Prewitt has better numbers (23.3 ppg compared to 19.6 and 8.4 rpg compared to 4.9) and Montgomery County has a favorable draw to reach the semifinals.
I do think that Hawkins can win Mr. Basketball, but I think he needs to lead Madison Central to a state championship to do so.
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| Dominique Hawkins and Madison Central are on a mission and I don't think Hopkinsville can stop them. |
Madison Central - Hopkinsville : Both of these teams played in the K.O.B. and both played Ballard. Hopkinsville couldn't hang with the Bruins and I'm not sure they can hang with Madison Central either. Madison Central to the championship game.
Montgomery County - Ballard : Omar Prewitt has had a fantastic season and Montgomery County has a ton of talent. However, I don't think they can beat Ballard, Bruins move on.
Before we get to the Championship Game prediction let's take a look at the top players on each team.
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Wayne County : G Peyton Woods (2015), G Trey Blevins (2016) and F Corey Stearns (2016).
Madison Central : G Donminique Hawkins (2013), G Ken Jah Bosley (2013) and F Quan Taylor (2013).
Holmes : G James Bolden (2015), G Quan Palmer (2013) and F Chris Englemon (2013).
Pleasure Ridge Park : G Antonio McDaniels (2014), F D'Angelo Hunter (2014) and F Lamontray Harris (2014).
Graves County : G Jake Williams (2014), G/F Peyton Puckett (2014) and F Zach Kimbler (2014).
Ohio County : G Trevor Lewis (2014), G Jonathan Wortham (2013) and G/F Preston Lambrich (2013).
Hopkinsville : G Jordan Majors (2013), G Trey Edwards (2014) and F Jaqualis Matlock (2015).
South Oldham : G Matthew Haysley (2013), G Kyle Young (2014) and F Shae Goodlett (2013).
Warren Central : G Nay Walker (2013), G Chris Porter-Bunton (2014) and F Bryon Carver (2014).
Montgomery County : G Bryan Wallace (2014), G/F Darius Jones (2014) and G/F Omar Prewitt (2013).
Fleming County : G Darion Burns (2014), G Austin Crisp (2014) and F Troy Steward (2014).
John Hardin : G Brandon Price (2013), G Keon Williams (2014) and F Daveon Green (2013).
Johnson Central : G Braxton Blair (2015), G/F Kyle Gullett (2015) and F Shane Hall (2014).
Ballard : G Quentin Snider (2014), G Lavone Holland (2013) and F Kelan Martin (2014).
Knott County Central : G Camron Justice (2015), F Evan Hall (2015) and F Chance Cornett (2015).
Clay County : G Tyler McDaniel (2015), F Marty Bowling (2013) and F Stephon Lyttle (2013).
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Championship Game Thoughts and Prediction:
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| I think the trio of Snider, Martin and Holland will again prove too much for Madison Central. |
Ballard over Madison Central : Ballard beat Madison Central in the K.O.B. earlier this year. And that's when they didn't have Malik Dow and Lavone Holland was still recovering from sickness that held him out from an earlier game. I think the trio of Snider, Holland and Martin prove too much for Madison Central. Ballard wins their first title since 1999